12 Apr – changes to this page not listed in What’s New

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Bond Bear Market Creating Perfect Financial Storm with:

Most Reliable Stock Bear Market Signals Critical

Several Bubble Indicators Worst Ever !

Insiders dumping their company’s stock recently hit ALL-TIME HIGHS,
about the most reliable indicator of a major downturn.

S&P 500 Price-to-Sales Ratio Nears Outrageous Dot-Com All-Time Peak!


click a chart for source

more than DOUBLE long-term average

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Most Crucial Ratio – Earnings (P/E) Far Easier to Spin, Fudge

per Senior Advisers Warning Stocks at Peak Bubble (more below)

The “Best Valuation Gauge” says Warren Buffett
Rivals Dot-Com Bubble Peak !:

10% Higher than third all-time highest peak in 2007, now DOUBLE the median since 1950 !

Investing Giants like Buffett and Soros Betting $Billions on Sharp Market Fall

Stampede Mentality Tosses Number One Rule of Investing: Buy Low!

Wildly Embraces Irrational Exuberance

Forgets Inevitable Exit Stampede Always Devastates the Herd

Nothing But Froth Left in Record Rally since 2009 Bottom, Out of Steam:

Ominous Snap-Back Rally Past Month Has No Legs: Ignores Worsening Earnings, Economic Outlooks

Many More Metrics below, incl. Falling Volume Warn it’s just a Sucker Bear Market Rally since October low

Every Such Rare Steep, V-Shaped Rally Collapsed Within a Month:

 (see full chart below)

Fall 2008 Crash Pattern Recurs: Russell/S&P 500 Ratio Falls Sharply (see below)

“clear evidence investors are reducing risk, rotating out of small-cap stocks into big-cap stocks.”

S&P P/E-S* Hits 1929, Dot-Com, and SubPrime Bubble Range

*Shiller P/E

Stratospheric Tech Stock P/Es Reach Dot-Com Bubble Peak (details below)

Worst Divergence Ever Confirms Sucker Rally, Buyers Out of Steam = Risks Max

Present Signals Trifecta Presaged 100% of Previous Bear Markets

Currently “Present Divergences [ALWAYS Occurred] at Past Market Tops” <MarketWatch

almost half US stocks 20% down or worse = in bear market:
47% of NASDAQ, 40% of new IPOs, and 40% of strictly US stocks (Russell 2000)

Above link also demonstrates P/E valuations are deliberately understated to fleece suckers.

Russell Valuations at Unheard-of Stratospheric Levels, ~25% Worse than Dot-Com Bubble Record

= lots more downside

Fall 2008 Crash Pattern Recurs: Russell/S&P 500 Ratio Falls Sharply

Strictly US Stocks (Russell 2000) Lead Rest Down

Most Reliable Predictor of US Stock Markets since at least 2000; see third chart below

Russell Erases 15 Months of Gains (Oct 13), Far More Down than Up This Year

  click chart for more details,

longer-term charts,

latest close

Sharp Downward Momentum Shift Past Year
Continues Leading Rest of Market Sharply Down

Unusual, Large Trading Volume Spike Portends >20% Loss for Russell = Bear Market

Numerous Sell Signals Blaring as S&P 500 Breaks Down

Stratospheric Tech Stock P/E Ratios at Levels Not Seen Since Dot-Com Peak

Are Main Reason S&P 500 P/E* Ratio’s Getting Out of This World:

*Price / Earnings

75% of NASDAQ 100, mostly Tech Stocks’ P/E Is 20 to Almost 500!, then Outta This World!!

Including 10% with NEGLIGIBLE to NEGATIVE Eearnings! = incalculable, astronomic P/E
Investors Own Many to Tens of $Billions of Each of These Outta-this-World Stocks Despite No Profits!
Can You Spell Mania and/or Bubble?

NASDAQ 100 Grouped by P/E Ratio, with Percents of Total Listings

And the NASDAQ’s now 70% higher than when above graph was calculated !

Most pros consider P/E of 15 pricey to dangerous, since dividends provide low returns at that level.

Stock Pros Know $Trillions Investors Pulled Out of US Stocks 2007 to 2009 Never Returned
(details below )

Russell 2000 Signals Downturn Again

The index traders call the “Canary in the coal mine.”

Led US Stock Markets Down in 2000 and 2007 — also Led Markets Back Up:

Best Reflecting US Economy among Stock Indices,
Russell Also Mirrors US Economy Pulling Rest of World Down or Up:
Seen in S&P 500 Multinationals’ CopyCat Moves above

The 2000 Russell stocks best reflect US economy because great majority of their income
is US sales, in contrast to S&P 500 multinationals with most of their income overseas,*
some more than 90% offshore, e.g: Intel. (*index weighting makes it reflect multinationals primarily)

Outrageously Bankrupt Financial Sector Continues Main Weight Holding Stocks Down:

Just as Financials Also Broke the Back of the Dot-Com Bubble (next chart below)

BKX plus DJ 30 Titans Above Are Best Indicators of MegaBank Stock Prices (overall)

MegaBanks Also Popped the Dot-Com Bubble, Heading Down a Year Before Techs:

But Home Builders Are Down Much More!

Utterly Failing to Recover from Their ’05 Peak:

$Trillions Investors Pulled Out of US Stocks 2007 to 2009 Never Returned

As Jim Cramer puts it, this multi-year “bull market..doesn't draw in new dollars.
It just kind of putters along without any real fuel.”

Most Evident in Trading Volumes Collapsing Back to Mid 1990’s Before Dot-Com Bubble

(second chart below)

Also in Investors Withdrawing Nearly 1/2 $Trillion from Stock Mutual Funds since 2009

click image for full size, source

Rising Stock Prices Despite Collapsing Volumes Only Occurs
in Sucker Market Rallies During Long-Term Secular Bear Markets; more below

Plus Large to Great Majority of Trading Now Is Algorithmic Computer High-Frequency Trading
Not Value Nor Long-Term, Nor Even Institutional Nor Retail Investors!

NYSE Trading Index* 1999 to 2012:

*Proportional to, not direct measure of trading volume

S&P 500 Volume from 2010 to 2013:

S&P 500 Volume Collapses to Multi-Decade Lows 2014

Stocks Continue Bear Market Pattern of Volume Spikes Only on Falling Prices this Year
= All Rallies Just Sucker Bear Market Rallies – Despite Worsening Economic Realities:
Investors Stop Buying as Prices Rise, Pullbacks Stimulate Selling:

*what traders call an unconfirmed rally, lacking conviction

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As numerous investigations and exposés, including Michael Lewis’ Flash Boys attest:

US Stock Markets Are Basically a Rigged Casino, Lots to Great Majority Profits to the House(s)

Often most of a day’s trades occur in the opening and/or final minute or two of the trading day.
Hence wild intraday swings are far more common than last century, e.g, these recent days:


High-frequency and Day Traders continually “Drub ’em Up and Drub ’em Down,”
using leverage and options to profit both ways.

Again: Stock and Bond Portfolios Down 75+% this century
(blue, pink and teal lines along bottom of below chart)

Compared to What Most Spend Most of Their Paychecks on: Energy, Food..
Down Almost as Much Compared to Housing

S&P 500, Food, NASDAQ 100, Oil, Gold, 10-yr US Treasury Bond:

Another way to see stocks collapsed in purchasing power:

S&P 500 Value in Barrels of Oil It Can Buy:

Additions, Changes to this page

not listed on the What’s New page

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NASDAQ now almost 20% higher than when over-the-moon P/E graph was calculated!

far too many polishings to list

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