12 Apr – changes to this page not listed in What’s New
21+ Pages, Exposés on this Site (list)
Most Reliable Stock Bear Market Signals Critical
Several Bubble Indicators Worst Ever !
Insiders dumping their company’s stock recently hit ALL-TIME HIGHS,
about the most reliable indicator of a major downturn.
S&P500 Price-to-Sales Ratio Nears Outrageous Dot-Com All-Time Peak!
click a chart for source
more than DOUBLE long-term average
Price-to-Sales (P/S) Most Crucial Ratio – Earnings (P/E) Far Easier to Spin, Fudge
10% Higher than third all-time highest peak in 2007, now DOUBLE the median since 1950 !
Stampede Mentality Tosses Number One Rule of Investing: Buy Low!
Forgets Inevitable Exit Stampede Always Devastates the Herd
Nothing But Froth Left in Record Rally since 2009 Bottom, Out of Steam:
Many More Metrics below, incl. Falling Volume Warn it’s just a Sucker Bear Market Rally since October low
(see full chart below)
Fall 2008 Crash Pattern Recurs: Russell/S&P500 Ratio Falls Sharply (see below)
“clear evidence investors are reducing risk, rotating out of small-cap stocks into big-cap stocks.”
Stratospheric Tech Stock P/Es Reach Dot-Com Bubble Peak (details below)
Above link also demonstrates P/E valuations are deliberately understated to fleece suckers.
= lots more downside
Strictly US Stocks (Russell2000) Lead Rest Down
Most Reliable Predictor of US Stock Markets since at least 2000; see third chart below
Russell Erases 15 Months of Gains (Oct 13), Far More Down than Up This Year
click chart for more details,
Sharp Downward Momentum Shift Past Year
Continues Leading Rest of Market Sharply Down
Stratospheric Tech Stock P/E Ratios at Levels Not Seen Since Dot-Com Peak
Are Main Reason S&P500 P/E* Ratio’s Getting Out of This World:
*Price / Earnings
75% of NASDAQ 100, mostly Tech Stocks’ P/E Is 20 to Almost 500!, then Outta This World!!
Including 10% with NEGLIGIBLE to NEGATIVE Eearnings! = incalculable, astronomic P/E
Investors Own Many to Tens of $Billions of Each of These Outta-this-World Stocks Despite No Profits!
Can You Spell Mania and/or Bubble?
NASDAQ 100 Grouped by P/E Ratio, with Percents of Total Listings
And the NASDAQ’s now 70% higher than when above graph was calculated !
Most pros consider P/E of 15 pricey to dangerous, since dividends provide low returns at that level.
Stock Pros Know $Trillions Investors Pulled Out of US Stocks 2007 to 2009 Never Returned
Russell2000 Signals Downturn Again
The index traders call the “Canary in the coal mine.”
Led US Stock Markets Down in 2000 and 2007 — also Led Markets Back Up:
Best Reflecting US Economy among Stock Indices,
Russell Also Mirrors US Economy Pulling Rest of World Down or Up:
Seen in S&P500 Multinationals’ CopyCat Moves above
The 2000 Russell stocks best reflect US economy because great majority of their income
is US sales, in contrast to S&P500 multinationals with most of their income overseas,*
some more than 90% offshore, e.g: Intel. (*index weighting makes it reflect multinationals primarily)
Just as Financials Also Broke the Back of the Dot-Com Bubble (next chart below)
BKX plus DJ 30 Titans Above Are Best Indicators of MegaBank Stock Prices (overall)
MegaBanks Also Popped the Dot-Com Bubble, Heading Down a Year Before Techs:
But Home Builders Are Down Much More!
Utterly Failing to Recover from Their ’05 Peak:
$Trillions Investors Pulled Out of US Stocks 2007 to 2009 Never Returned
As Jim Cramer puts it, this multi-year “bull market..doesn't draw in new dollars.
It just kind of putters along without any real fuel.”
Most Evident in Trading Volumes Collapsing Back to Mid 1990’s Before Dot-Com Bubble
(second chart below)
Also in Investors Withdrawing Nearly 1/2 $Trillion from Stock Mutual Funds since 2009
click image for full size, source
Rising Stock Prices Despite Collapsing Volumes Only Occurs
in Sucker Market Rallies During Long-Term Secular Bear Markets; more below
Plus Large to Great Majority of Trading Now Is Algorithmic Computer High-Frequency Trading
Not Value Nor Long-Term, Nor Even Institutional Nor Retail Investors!
NYSE Trading Index* 1999 to 2012:
*Proportional to, not direct measure of trading volume
S&P500 Volume from 2010 to 2013:
S&P500 Volume Collapses to Multi-Decade Lows 2014
Stocks Continue Bear Market Pattern of Volume Spikes Only on Falling Prices this Year
= All Rallies Just Sucker Bear Market Rallies – Despite Worsening Economic Realities:
Investors Stop Buying as Prices Rise, Pullbacks Stimulate Selling:
*what traders call an unconfirmed rally, lacking conviction
back to top
As numerous investigations and exposés, including Michael Lewis’ Flash Boys attest:
US Stock Markets Are Basically a Rigged Casino, Lots to Great Majority Profits to the House(s)
Often most of a day’s trades occur in the opening and/or final minute or two of the trading day.
Hence wild intraday swings are far more common than last century, e.g, these recent days:
High-frequency and Day Traders continually “Drub ’em Up and Drub ’em Down,”
using leverage and options to profit both ways.
Again: Stock and Bond Portfolios Down 75+% this century
(blue, pink and teal lines along bottom of below chart)
Compared to What Most Spend Most of Their Paychecks on: Energy, Food..
Down Almost as Much Compared to Housing
S&P500, Food, NASDAQ100, Oil, Gold, 10-yr US Treasury Bond:
Another way to see stocks collapsed in purchasing power:
S&P500 Value in Barrels of Oil It Can Buy:
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