21+ Pages, Exposés on this Site (list)
15 Sep’14 (original)
A commenter asks:
“When will the shoe finally drop?”
(this polished 3 Oct version ignores how stocks have since rolled over, on perhaps the final drop;
includes general advice on timing markets applicable any time, anywhere.)
That’s the 10 $Trillion question. Virtually no one ever calls a market peak precisely. (re: bottoms, see PS)
But the real challenge is examining what’s actually behind the question, what’s actually at stake, how to approach such issues most thoroughly, carefully, and wisely.
One needs, of course, a good sense of overall market conditions.
Here are several key realities essential for weighing the present situation:
The “Financial Pearl Harbor” is likely to “begin within..six months.”
(See the above link for lots more info and details in the video reporting their warnings.)
Their annual assessments of the global financial system are usually as exciting as paint drying.
In 2007, however, it was an unprecedented, spot-on warning right before the subprime stock bubble popped (see above link).
Stocks have likely peaked already:
Almost Half of all US Stocks Are in a Bear Market*
The Russell 2000 index almost exactly tracks the US economy, and is the best bellwether of US stock indices, one of several discussed on the Stocks page:
Russell turned sharply down in July, and is now negative
for the year. (1 Oct)
Every time it has led markets down like this summer, US has had a bear market, going back decades, as above page demonstrates.
Silicon Valley is also more outta this world now than right before the dot-com crash.
As one can see from all other metrics: actual joblessness & real* GDP (not Uncle Shame’s statistical lies).. housing starts, food stamps, lending, etc.:
Everything except stocks is down/worse this year, and Russell being flat = it’s down in real terms since prices ever rise in a debt money system.
The truth is, everything is still way down in real terms* ever since housing peaked in 2005 (nationwide, overall).
All “Recovery” talk is nothing but spin and BS, wishful thinking at best: Virtually all US assets have fallen far more in purchasing power this century than ever before, as demonstrated at the above link.
The few housing markets with significant price rises are just the last little bubbles about to pop.
* = adjusted for dollars continually losing purchasing power
see above “Recovery” link for details
Bonds* are actually by far the worst disaster, with nowhere to go but down off the most over-the-moon, inebriated bubble ever. *including US Treasuries
= Curtains for global financial system, US at ground zero.
= Interest rates about to head over moon — if you can find a lender!
= Real estate doomed like never before.
Any asset priced in dollars, tethered to the US economy, is a slow-motion trainwreck.
There’s nothing in the universe could reverse things now. Everything’s downhill from here.
Time to get positioned was years ago. Things may crack wide open tomorrow.
Once the runaway train starts down from Donner Pass..
it’ll be way to impossibly hard to escape the trap.
US economy is like a house of cards in unprecedentedly unique circumstances permitting it to grow multiple times higher than all previous astronomically precarious bubbles.
As with all such doomed enterprises, once one catches on collapse is unavoidable, the only prudent course is get as far out of harm’s way as necessary immediately:
The science of predicting precisely when a bubble will pop or a house of cards collapse exists only in Wonderland.
Furthermore, it’s public knowledge Wall Street precipitated the 2008 financial meltdown by forcing Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy (via withholding $Billions of clearings other firms owed to Lehman).
Impossible as it is for most to imagine: Markets are hugely manipulated, ever rigged as much as possible to maximally benefit very few at maximal expense of everyone else.
Warlike ways are far from rare in human behavior.
Just as 1% and especially global 0.01% wealth mushroomed since the Lehman take-out like never before, they can’t wait for the next “correction” to transfer pretty much the rest of the world they don’t already own into their Midas treasuries, similar to how the Great Depression created more ultra-wealthy than any other era:
As the only ones left standing, they’ll deploy their incomparable resources¹ to buy up pretty much rest of the world they don’t already own at fire-sale prices.
See PPS how it’s the culmination of literally decades of scheming and conniving.
Since financial/economic warrings are about the most covert operations on Earth, only the ringleaders have crucial info on when markets will turn.
But things are so extremely maximally stretched outta dis world like never before, even if all the world’s 1% strained maximally in concert to prop things up another week or season, they may well lack what it would take at this point.
A faint breeze is all it takes to pop a fragile bubble, but a physical disaster like the inevitable San Francisco or NYC megaquakes, and/or war and/or pestilence(s) could also be the trigger(s).
The craftiest are not at all trying to determine when things will pop: they’ve long since been preparing. Many are looking forward to vast opportunities dead ahead to clean up, to finish picking the 99% to the bone and worse.
With prayers . . .
¹including $Trillions of gold looted from the world’s central banks at a steep discount engineered by their global war against gold, banksters’ declared “Enemy No. 1.”
Once the bubbles pop they’d be unable to stop gold soaring no matter how hard they tried.
They’ll instead cheer as gold’s rise further catapults their portfolios ever higher above the rest of humanity.
(Most fortunate are those who know all goes to plan on the Planet of Lessons, where humans gain lessons to last all eternity.
(School of Hard Knocks often the only way.)
PS: Market bottoms are far more crucial to discern than attempting to catch a precise top, the Hail Mary of investing.
Discerning an asset bottom is crucial to fulfilling Rule Number One of investing: BUY LOW.
The greater the bargain the better the investment, and the less important it is to try timing the perfect entry point.
PPS: The Solution(s)? page discusses crucial reasons the freedom-loving US, especially its middle class, was marked for destruction.
Tragically few know destruction of the gold standard was an essential strategy. When the Federal Reserve was created, then FDR outlawed gold money, true patriots knew these were horrible, fundamental betrayals of the American Revolution. Including numerous Members of Congress, they fought these travesties all the way to the Supreme Court. But banksters long since owned the Justices.
Colonists refused to use the debt money called British pounds because they understood every debt money is a “Scheme for the Confiscation of Wealth.”
Right after Nixon drove the final nail in the gold standard, Wall Street began implementing the final solution by luring the 99% into the trap via tax-deferred retirement accounts. Until then only a very small % of Americans had anything to do with stocks and such. Wall Street made sure to saturate minds with endless conflicting opinions and advice to make sure 90+% failed to acquire good skills at investing.
The subprime bubble was just the last of many long trainwrecks of schemings to fleece the greatest middle class of all time: In 1971 when the gold standard was Nixed, a majority of Americans owned a majority of the nation’s assets, utterly unheard-of in world history. God only knows when such a wonder may recur.
Those interested in being further sickened by these horrors will find numerous details and further references on the above-linked pages.